层状非均质包气带渗透性特征及其对降水入渗的影响

不同的岩性界面影响了降水在包气带中的入渗、运移与再分布过程,其影响机制仍是有待研究的学科前沿问题。针对上述问题,基于层状非均质包气带6 m×4 m×5 m样方,开展了多场次自然降水入渗过程的原位试验监测,研究结果表明层状非均质结构对降水入渗过程和速率影响明显:(1)地层分界面处土壤含水率呈现陡降变化特征;(2)220 cm深度以上包气带中土壤含水率对降水入渗响应变化敏感,呈含水率陡变的多峰谷式脉冲响应变化特征,其中20～100 cm地层土壤含水率变化幅度为22.58%～29.76%,120～200 cm地层土壤含水率变化幅度为13.74%～20.74%;220 cm深度以下包气带中土壤含水率对降水入渗响应滞缓,年内呈现平缓单峰响应变化特征,反映了多场次降雨的累积效应,其中220～400 cm地层土壤含水率变化幅度为2.3%～12.15%,430～460 cm地层土壤含水率变化幅度为2.5%～3.41%;(3)层状非均质结构阻滞了水分的运移(湿润锋通过亚砂土-粉砂界面时,平均运移速度由10.53 cm·d~(-1)下降为0.77 cm·d~(-1);湿润锋通过亚砂土-亚粘土界面时,平均运移速度由12 cm·d~(-1)下降为1.86 cm·d~(-1)),当岩性界面处水分不断蓄积克服阻力后才能向下运移;受上部界面水分蓄积的影响,下部层状非均质结构的阻滞作用将被减弱甚至不明显。     

Price volatility dynamics in aquaculture fish markets

Abstract

In this paper, a time-varying student-t copula is used to capture information on price volatility dependence in the short-, medium-, and long-run horizon in the US market for frozen and fresh salmon, trout, tilapia and catfish. Using monthly data from July 1992 to March 2017, the volatility dynamics for these aquaculture species are assessed. The analysis allows indicating significant differences in the volatility relationships, depending on time-frequency. While short-run volatility has limited dependency, there is significant dependency in both the medium- and long-run, indicating that market integration is stronger in the long-run. The information is particularly important to buyers and producers utilizing the futures markets, as contracts are typically traded using a set of frequencies, and may help them manage and reduce price risk.     

Realizing the potential of trait‐based approaches to advance fisheries science

Analysing how fish populations and their ecological communities respond to perturbations such as fishing and environmental variation is crucial to fisheries science. Researchers often predict fish population dynamics using species‐level life‐history parameters that are treated as fixed over time, while ignoring the impact of intraspecific variation on ecosystem dynamics. However, there is increasing recognition of the need to include processes operating at ecosystem levels (changes in drivers of productivity) while also accounting for variation over space, time and among individuals. To address similar challenges, community ecologists studying plants, insects and other taxa increasingly measure phenotypic characteristics of individual animals that affect fitness or ecological function (termed “functional traits”). Here, we review the history of trait‐based methods in fish and other taxa, and argue that fisheries science could see benefits by integrating trait‐based approaches within existing fisheries analyses. We argue that measuring and modelling functional traits can improve estimates of population and community dynamics, and rapidly detect responses to fishing and environmental drivers. We support this claim using three concrete examples: how trait‐based approaches could account for time‐varying parameters in population models; improve fisheries management and harvest control rules; and inform size‐based models of marine communities. We then present a step‐by‐step primer for how trait‐based methods could be adapted to complement existing models and analyses in fisheries science. Finally, we call for the creation and expansion of publicly available trait databases to facilitate adapting trait‐based methods in fisheries science, to complement existing public databases of life‐history parameters for marine organisms.     

Life history demographic parameter synthesis for exploited Florida and Caribbean coral reef fishes

Age‐ or length‐structured stock assessments require reliable life history demographic parameters (growth, mortality, reproduction) to model population dynamics, potential yields and stock sustainability. This study synthesized life history information for 84 commercially exploited tropical reef fish species from Florida and the U.S. Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands). We attempted to identify a useable set of life history parameters for each species that included lifespan, length at age, weight at length and maturity at length. Key aspects of the life history synthesis were development of: (a) a database that characterized study details including sampling region, biological and statistical methods, length range of sampled individuals, sample size, capture gears and sampling time frame; (b) reproducible procedural criteria for parameter identification for a given species; and (c) a reliability metric for each parameter type. Complete life history parameter sets were available for 46 species analysed. Of these, only 16 species had parameter sets meeting the highest standards for reliability, highlighting future research needs.     

不同小麦品种小麦白粉病发病程度及其田间发生动态分析

【目的】研究新冬60号、新冬57号、新冬40号和新冬20号小麦白粉病危害程度和田间发生动态,为科学防控小麦白粉病提供理论依据。【方法】采用定期定点调查的方法,系统调查不同品种小麦白粉病发生情况。【结果】新冬60号、新冬57号、新冬40号小麦白粉病田间发生动态基本一致。新冬60号、新冬57号、新冬40号和新冬20号小麦白粉病病情指数最高分别为8.22、7.11、37.63和25.48。新冬60号和新冬57号小麦白粉病田间发生程度极显著轻于新冬40号和新冬20号,新冬40号小麦白粉病田间危害程度极显著重于新冬20号。【结论】新冬60号和新冬57号小麦白粉病田间危害程度极显著轻于新冬20号,可根据田间发病情况,合理减施农药。新冬40号小麦白粉病田间发生程度极显著重于新冬20号,应加强对小麦白粉病的预防。     

基于GAM的长江口鱼类资源时空分布及影响因素

根据2006至2017年长江口及其邻近海域鱼类资源调查,运用广义加性模型研究长江口鱼类资源密度与环境因子之间的关系,并对2017年鱼类资源密度的时空分布进行预测。结果显示,春夏秋冬四个季节最佳GAM偏差解释率分别为69.6%、55.9%、51.4%和47.4%,交叉验证回归线斜率的平均效应为0.62～0.88。盐度、水温和溶解氧是影响长江口鱼类资源密度的主要环境影响因子且在不同季节对鱼类资源密度有不同的影响机制。总体上,在春、夏、秋季,盐度与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在夏、秋、冬季,水温对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在秋季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向相关性;在春、秋、冬季,溶解氧对鱼类资源密度有显著影响,在冬季与鱼类资源密度之间存在正向线性相关。研究表明,2017年夏季鱼类资源密度较高;在长江口南支的自然延伸水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对低值,在崇明岛向海自然延伸方向水域存在鱼类资源密度的相对高值。后续研究将对长江口鱼类资源进行不同生态类型区分,以期更加准确地掌握影响各生态类型鱼类时空分布的环境因素及其时空分布信息。     

基于CFD的蛋鸭舍内环境模拟分析与验证

为优化4层层叠式笼养鸭舍舍内环境,基于计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)对鸭舍内气流场、温度场及CO_2浓度场进行模拟。将笼架简化,考虑其对气流的阻挡作用,将鸭笼及鸭只视为多孔介质。模拟结果显示,进风口为湿帘时,侧墙湿帘与端墙之间存在通风死区,风速低于0.5 m·s~(-1)。进风口为通风小窗时,鸭舍未安装通风小窗区域风速小,CO_2浓度大。改变纵墙湿帘位置对鸭舍结构进行改进,改进后气流不均匀系数降低了17%。改进通风小窗布置发现,提升通风小窗分布均匀性显著降低舍内温差;提升通风小窗安装高度将显著降低舍内CO_2浓度。该研究可为蛋鸭舍结构设计提供参考。     

副车架疲劳载荷分析方法

结合LMSTWR软件,详细介绍了基于混合路面的轮心位移反求法求取副车架载荷谱的方法。通过在某MPV上布置合适传感器,在试验场测得道路载荷谱信号。根据实测的数据,建立整车多体动力学模型。基于处理后的道路载荷谱与多体动力学模型进行虚拟迭代,并进行副车架载荷分解。结果表明,迭代仿真得到的信号与试验值吻合度较好。     

滇西南菜区小菜蛾发生规律及抗药性现状

为掌握滇西南菜区小菜蛾的发生规律和抗药性现状, 2013-2017年进行了田间系统调查幼虫、性信息素诱集成虫和室内毒力测定。结果表明:滇西南菜区小菜蛾田间种群每年早春存在种群激增现象, 3-5月份出现春季高峰期, 6月后种群数量保持较低水平。抗性测定表明, 该地区小菜蛾对丁醚脲、Bt、氯虫苯甲酰胺、虫螨腈、茚虫威均为低水平抗性, 对氟啶脲和多杀霉素为中等水平抗性; 对阿维菌素为中到高抗，对高效氯氰菊酯为高抗水平。建议该区域1-5月放置性信息素诱杀成虫, 3-4月用丁醚脲、Bt制剂、氯虫苯甲酰胺、虫螨腈、茚虫威等进行化学防治, 6-12月小菜蛾的发生虫量在经济阈值下, 可不防治。     

马铃薯及土壤中烯酰吗啉的残留及消解动态研究

烯酰吗啉(dimethomorph,DMM)是一种新型内吸治疗性专用低毒杀菌剂,广泛用于晚疫病等病害的防治。为合理将烯酰吗啉用于马铃薯晚疫病防治,采用液相色谱-质谱联用(UPLC-MS)方法研究不同年份(2015、2016年)不同产地(宁夏回族自治区、黑龙江省)烯酰吗啉在马铃薯块茎、植株和土壤中的消解动态及最终残留量。结果表明:2015年和2016年烯酰吗啉在马铃薯植株中的半衰期分别为22.36 d(宁夏)、12.38 d(黑龙江)和3.69 d(宁夏)、28.88 d(黑龙江);在马铃薯土壤中的半衰期分别为231.05 d(宁夏)、6.48 d(黑龙江)和69.31 d(宁夏)、13.33 d(黑龙江)。烯酰吗啉施药剂量、次数和时间间隔不同,则其在马铃薯植株、块茎及土壤中的最终残留量也不同。施药量为1 345.5～2 018.2 g(a.i)/hm2,施药3～4次,施药间隔7 d,施药后14 d采收,收获马铃薯块茎中烯酰吗啉的残留量即均小于0.02 mg/kg,低于我国制定的马铃薯中烯酰吗啉最大残留限量值0.05 mg/kg。